Trading simulator
Project how your account grows with your win rate, R:R, fees and compounding across hundreds of trades.
By the TradingCalculator.Pro team · Updated on · About us
Start your 7-day free trial →Try position sizing free, no account needed →
Formula
Compound growth trade by tradeHow it works
An account projection applies your edge trade by trade to the capital that remains at each point, not to the starting balance. That difference is everything: compounding works both ways, and a losing streak shrinks the size of the following trades as much as a winning streak grows it.
What makes a projection useful is what it includes beyond the edge. Commissions and slippage are deducted on every trade, not at the end, and in frequent trading they are the difference between a profitable system and a flat one: a cost of 0.08% of the account per trade eats more than half of a 0.176 R edge at 1% risk. A simulator that ignores them projects a system that does not exist.
What you get
- Phased projection with compounding
- Includes fees and slippage
- Expected equity curve
Worked example
A $5,000 account, 300 trades, 42% hit rate, 1:1.8 ratio, 1% risk and a 0.08% account cost per trade in commissions and slippage.
- Gross expectancy: 0.42 × 1.8 − 0.58 = 0.176 R per trade.
- At 1% risk that is 0.176% per trade, less 0.08% of costs: 0.096% net.
- 40,000 sequences of 300 trades simulated with those properties.
- Median result $6,478; the worst 5% end at $4,384 and the best 5% at $9,572.
Median $6,478 (+30%), yet 13% of sequences finish below the $5,000 starting balance.
That 13% is what a plain expectancy calculation never shows. The system is profitable — net expectancy is positive and the median is up 30% — and even so, over 300 trades, one sequence in eight ends in the red. A trader living that sequence would conclude their system does not work, and would be wrong.
How to use it
- Enter your inputs: the terms of the formula (capital, risk, prices and stop).
- The calculator applies the formula and returns the result in your instrument's units.
- Check the breakdown before trading: anything that cannot be computed is shown empty, never as zero.
Frequently asked questions
How much can a $5,000 account grow over 300 trades?
With a net edge of 0.096% per trade the median lands at $6,478, with the fan running from $4,384 to $9,572 between the 5th and 95th percentiles. The range matters more than the median: it is what tells you whether you will still follow the plan when you get the low end.
How do commissions affect the projection?
They are deducted every trade and compound just like gains do. With a gross expectancy of 0.176% per trade, a 0.08% cost leaves 0.096% net — almost half the edge. That is why a system that works on higher timeframes may not work intraday at the same hit rate.
Why does my real result not look like the projection?
Because a projection returns a distribution and you live one single sequence from it. With these numbers, 13% of sequences end in losses even though the system is profitable. If your result falls inside the simulated fan, the system is behaving as expected even if the number is not one you like.
What hit rate do I need for the projection to be positive?
It depends on the ratio and on costs, not on the hit rate alone. At a 1:1.8 ratio the gross break-even sits at 35.7%, but adding a 0.08% cost against 1% risk pushes it to roughly 38.5%. Costs move the bar, and in high-frequency systems they move it a lot.
Is projecting with compounding realistic?
It is for fixed percentage risk, which is how most people trade, but it has a practical limit. Compounding assumes you can scale size indefinitely, and past a certain volume slippage grows and the edge narrows. For a retail account the effect is negligible; for one multiplying tenfold, it is not.