Intermarket analysis
No market moves alone (John Murphy). The dollar, bonds, commodities and equities are wired together: reading those links gives the macro context that confirms — or refutes — your trade. It's 15% of the CMT exam for a reason.
By the TradingCalculator.Pro team · Updated on · About us
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Dollar ↔ commodities
Historically inverse: commodities are priced in dollars, so a strong dollar makes them pricier for the world and pressures them down (gold, oil). If you trade gold, ALWAYS watch the dollar index (DXY).
Bonds & yields ↔ equities
When yields rise (bonds fall), 'risk-free' money pays more and equities — especially growth/tech — suffer, as their future earnings are worth less discounted. Falling yields usually relieve stocks. The US 10-year is the benchmark.
Risk-on / Risk-off
Risk-on: equities, crypto, AUD and emerging markets rise. Risk-off: dollar, yen, Swiss franc, gold and bonds rise; the rest falls. Spotting the day's mode stops you buying risk assets while the world flees risk.
Currency correlations
EURUSD and GBPUSD move alike (positive correlation); EURUSD and USDCHF, inversely. AUD and NZD track commodities; JPY is a haven. Opening two correlated pairs = unknowingly doubling the same bet.
Relative strength & rotation
Comparing one asset to another (ratio) shows who leads: tech vs S&P, gold vs stocks, BTC vs ETH. Money rotates through sectors with the cycle; trading what shows relative strength puts you on the side of institutional flow.
Applying it to your trades
Before a trade, do a 60-second check: does the dollar help or hurt? Are yields aligned? Is the mode risk-on or off? If intermarket contradicts your trade, cut size or pass. Intermarket divergences (stocks up while copper and yields fall) often warn of turns.