Commodities
Unlike a stock, behind a commodity there is a real physical asset: barrels, bars, tonnes of wheat. That changes the rules: tangible supply and demand, seasonality, weather and geopolitics rule, not a company's earnings.
By the TradingCalculator.Pro team · Updated on · About us
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The three groups
Energy (WTI and Brent oil, natural gas): the most volatile, tied to geopolitics. Metals, split into precious (gold, silver — safe haven) and industrial (copper, 'Dr Copper' that anticipates the economy). Agricultural and softs (wheat, corn, coffee, sugar): driven by harvests and weather. Each group moves for different reasons.
Seasonality
Many commodities have recurring patterns tied to the physical calendar: natural gas demand rises in winter (heating), gasoline in summer (travel), and grains move with planting and harvest. It is not magic: it is supply and demand that repeat every year. They are statistical biases useful as context, not infallible signals.
Gold: the safe haven
Gold generates no interest or dividends, so its big enemy is real rates (interest minus inflation): when they rise, gold suffers because a 'safe' bond yields more. It shines with uncertainty, fear, runaway inflation or a weak dollar. It is the classic portfolio hedge and a thermometer of global nervousness.
Oil: inventories & OPEC
Crude prices are set by supply and demand week to week. Two key drivers: inventory reports (the EIA every Wednesday; a bigger-than-expected build usually lowers the price) and OPEC+ decisions on how much to produce. There are also two benchmarks: WTI (US) and Brent (international), with a spread that is itself traded.
Futures curve & roll
Commodities are traded mostly via futures, which expire. In contango (far contracts cost more) rolling the position to the next contract has a cost (negative roll yield); in backwardation, that roll pays you. It is why a commodity ETF can lose even if spot rises: the roll eats it. A key and much-ignored concept.