Breadth, cycles & seasonality
An index can rise carried by 5 mega-caps while the rest sinks: breadth measures the INTERNAL health of a move. Cycles and seasonality add the statistical 'when'. CMT exam material almost no retail trader watches.
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Advance/decline line (A/D)
Cumulative sum of advancing minus declining stocks each day. If the index prints new highs but the A/D doesn't confirm, the rally rests on few names: a fragile top. The classic end-of-trend divergence.
New 52-week highs/lows
How many stocks print yearly highs or lows. Healthy market: expanding new highs. Danger: index rising while new highs shrink and new lows grow — the engine is dying inside.
The NYSE TICK
The TICK measures, in real time, how many NYSE stocks last traded on an uptick MINUS how many on a downtick. It's an intraday mood thermometer: very high readings (+1000) signal buying euphoria (a possible short-term top), and very low ones (−1000), selling panic (a possible bottom). Day traders use it as a filter: don't chase rallies with the TICK already extreme, and look for reversions when it hits extremes and turns.
The TRIN (Arms Index)
The TRIN, or Arms Index (after Richard Arms), compares the ratio of advancing/declining stocks with the ratio of VOLUME going to them. Below 1 means money concentrates in the advancers (buying strength); above 1, in the decliners (selling pressure). Extreme readings (e.g. >2 or <0.5) usually mark exhaustion and possible turns. It's a classic contrarian breadth gauge.
McClellan Oscillator
The difference between two EMAs (19 and 39 days) of advance/decline data. Above 0 = internal buying pressure; extremes (±100) = breadth overbought/oversold, useful to anticipate pauses or bounces.
Seasonality
Calendar-repeating patterns: 'sell in May' (May-October historically weak for stocks), the Santa rally, the January effect, and in crypto the post-halving cycles. Statistical tailwinds — they tilt probability, never guarantee it.
Market cycles
Markets alternate expansion and contraction in waves of varying length (the ~4-year business cycle, the US presidential cycle, Bitcoin's halving). Useless for fine timing, but they place your trade in the right chapter of the story.